Scenario 2030 - investing in a safe future.

The year 2030 – let’s call it the target year.

The target – to adequately adapt to a changing climate and a changing landscape.

Why 2030?

By then the world’s sea levels are expected to rise by about 1.37 meters. Today around 100 million people around the world live within 1 meter of the sea levels. This is number will only increase in the next couple of years.

The rising seas will pose a variety of problems both at the micro as well as the macro level.  Resettlement of the displaced population, ensuring and maintaining adequate security, law and order, disaster control etc. would challenge every government on the face of the earth. But the one problem that would most likely suffocate these governments into giving up is food security. You can read more about this in my book ‘Wake up Mangalore… or be damned!’

I was raised in a small coastal city surrounded by lush green paddy fields and coconut plantations. But today, I can hardly see this greenery.  This is the case in most countries – wherein the lucrative real estate rates are persuading farmers into selling their fertile agricultural land. The advent of technology however has kept the demand and supply gap more or less within controllable limits. But with an unpredictable weather looming large, soil patterns constantly changing and water availability fast decreasing – keeping this gap small is a challenge.

But we need not panic, as we have plenty of solutions at hand. The only thing that needs to change is our proactiveness in implementing them.

One such solution is agroforestry.

Agroforestry can be defined as the integration of crops and livestock systems with trees. If implemented scientifically it has the potential to allow the farmer to increase the efficiency of land use, boost yields and also help in increasing the ever decreasing carbon sink.

For a farmer – agroforestry has tremendous benefits. On farm trees (the right kind) help replenish nutrient deficient soil. This eliminates the necessity to use chemical fertilizers. These trees may also bear fruit that can be used locally and sold – adding to the farmer’s revenue. These trees may also provide fodder for the livestock reducing fodder costs. In total it is a win-win situation for a farmer.

Sadly, I have no agricultural land except for a small back yard. What much can I do?

Don’t get disheartened and give up! There is a lot we can do!

To begin with, plant a few indigenous fruit trees in your yard. Consider this as an investment you are making for your children. You could also invest in agroforestry schemes and contribute to NGOs undertaking such missions. Remember the biggest challenge our children will face is finding adequate quantity of nutritious food. And we have a golden opportunity here. Let’s not let this one pass!

Let’s begin today….

The Fifth Assesment report of the IPCC is here

Warsaw... an opportunity wasted!

While typhoon Haiyan massacred as many as 10,000 innocent overnight, world leaders gathered and sat around a table in Warsaw discussing what to do next. Not one amongst them showed real visible grief about what had just happened in the other corner of the world. Their actions did not show any signs of the necessity to ink a deal. And after a few days of negotiations they finally acknowledged that ‘developing countries would be the most hit by climate change’.

Wait a second! What did they say?

Just a few weeks back, CNN came out with a detailed report having the list of 10 countries that would be the most hit by climate change. I can recall that at least half of this list is populated by underdeveloped countries. Fine, we don’t really care about the under developed third world.

It’s indeed a relief that they finally acknowledged that climate change is taking a toll on human life. Not really surprised by that – they have been doing this in all their summits since the Kyoto protocol! It’s been a decade and all we hear is acknowledgement of the existence of climate change and its impact on society. But what next?

Well, in this capitalistic society there is no next. Back in 2009 at Copenhagen it was agreed that countries around the world would set up a climate fund worth $100 billion! So far only $16 billion have been promised by the rich nations, most of it as loans. Poland the host nation of this year’s summit held a coal summit simultaneously with this – what an irony! And who is to be blamed?

Every climate change summit in the last few years has not delivered around two sensitive topics – the blame and the corrective action. Poland infamously exclaimed recently that ‘there should be collective action’ when questioned about their coal summit! Australia was awarded the ‘Fossil of the year!’ award at this summit. Pity that they still do not care even though climate change induced forest fires are continuously ravaging throughout the country.

The emotional speech by the Philippine climate change representative was heartwarming.   Seriously, it did touch me, but sadly it did not move even a single stone hearted diplomat sitting in that room. Rich countries who can afford the casualty of climate change make no effort at convincing the rest about the need for a change. The developing world – India and China to be precise think their development is more important, not realizing that a Haiyan like storm can flatten this development in a matter of hours. And the really affected under developed poor nations – hey, who’s even talking to you?

Kyoto, Copenhagen and now Warsaw…… an opportunity wasted!